Well I had an English professor in college who despised clichés with a passion. Hey I just realized that was a cliché. I do not know if Professor Mc Vie was a betting man though, because with apologies to my English mentor the old saying applies to money management in sports betting: it is a marathon not a sprint.
While some gamblers may fall prey to the assurances of boiler room scamdicappers maintaining to have inside information and hitting 95%, I have a surprise for you. No gambler, handicapper, wise guy, nobody is slump proof.
For that matter even Joebagofdonuts making his hunch plays for his $10 parlay card will go in streaks. The recipe is to find a handicapper or invest the time yourself to insure that the winning steaks outnumber and outlast the losing streaks.
Frankly the formula to winning in sports is well-informed handicapping and money management. Even if somebody can win consistently, if one's betting amount is haphazard one can lose a lot of money.
Bookmakers drive around in new Porsche's not just because most of their clients grapple to hit 45% of their plays, but also because a preponderance of gamblers use the "panic" or "greed" methods when deciding how much to wager.
Any sports investor who increases his bets when he is down to try to win it back in one bet is destined to live in a box by the river. That is why Monday Night Football is the greatest thing to ever happen to a bookie. The bookie's second best friend is the Sunday night game. Both are considered "bail out games" by the uneducated risk taker.
But even worse is the player for stakes who presses his luck during a hot streak and increases his bets. I have seen so many suckers go 15-5 for example and still squander capital.
The quandary is a $50 bettor for example when he is hot has the attitude, "Could you imagine how much I would have made if I bet $200 a game?" Even worse is the guy who goes 5-0 and realizes how much he could have made if he put money on a parlay. Yes 20/20 handicapping is great but I do not know a sportsbook that takes those types of antes.
Any bookmaker will tell you with 90% of gamblers, the more they win one week, the more the bookie looks forward to the gamester's phone call the next week. Too many gamblers always find a way to give the money back and then some.
Even I have had nightmare days, but because of money management the Wise Guys and I have no idea what a losing month or season is.
The recipe is to stake the same amount based purely on how much one likes a game, not how much one is up or down in the short run. However there are actually two adaptations of acceptable money management.
One is the Godsey Theory, which is the most straightforward and the other is the Kelly System, which the units are equal but always relative to the bankroll.
The Godsey Theory is a fundamental as it gets. The way to divvy the units can be different as long as it is constant, but the key is not change the rating system or units per play.
Personally I only bet plays in two different units. Wise Guy plays are my top play and majors are .75 units of a Wise Guy play.
So as it applies to a $100 player, he would bet $100 on my Wise Guy plays and of course, $75 on my majors. Much like putting the same amount every month into the stock market, this method must be bet religiously.
However the Kelly System is similar but is based on a set percentage of one's bankroll, not a set amount. Generally the maximum bet is 1/20 of the total bankroll.
Using the same one unit and .75 unit rating procedure, if one's bankroll starts out with a $2,000 bankroll, Wise Guy plays would be $100 (5% of 2,000) and a major would be $75 (3.75% of (2,000).
Let's say the gambler goes on a huge losing streak and his bankroll drops to $1,325. Then a Wise Guy play is still 5% of his bankroll, but is it $66.25, while a major is still 3.75% at $49.69.
When his bankroll is increased to $3,330 for example a Wise Guy play increases to $166.50, while a major would be $124.88.
Accurate handicapping and great information is the heart and soul of sports gambling. But without a responsible and thus concordant money management modus operandi it will all go for naught.
With both the Kelly Theory and the Godsey theory, your amount or percentage as the case may be never varies according to your streaks. I have never heard of a progressive betting system that works long-term. I know many in sports are based off of questionable betting procedure in blackjack or other casino games. The funny thing is the blackjack players who I know who swear by these methods always seem to forget when they lose and remember when it wins.
Now that is a degenerate gambler indeed. Somebody has to pay for those fancy chandeliers and ostentatious creature comforts at those multi-billion dollar casinos. Let us just make sure it is not you or me!
If one considers any game a "bailout" game, that is the first sign of trouble. Gamblers love to add up the wins and losses before deciding how much to bet on the Sunday night NFL game and Monday Night game. If a gambler had a horrific Saturday and Sunday, he starts betting parlays or coming up with schemes on how to win it all back with the two remaining prime time games—big mistake. Whether you are up 10 units or down said amount, the amount that you bet if at all on the Sunday night game should be based purely on how much you like that game. The Monday Night Football game is no different.
I cringe or at least wish that I was on the other side of the window when I hear a gambler who is down a few sheckles figuring merely how to get his debt below his "square up" amount with his man. Do not get me wrong, the goal of course is to not pay your man, but show me a guy who says he collects from the BM 52 weeks a year and please give me a chance to sell you stock in the Brooklyn Bridge.
Just like the stock market gambling has its ebbs and flows and to accept that one will not turn a profit 52 weeks a year is the first step on avoiding the endless pitfalls that make the bookmakers filthy rich.
The point is that with proper handicapping and money management you will collect from the man much more than he pays you, but there are some weeks that if you are down late in the week that you have to accept that it is going to be one of those periods where he collects from you.
Conversely the gambler often does the opposite. If he enters the late Sunday card significantly up, he may often get conservative just to insure a profit for the week or perhaps worse press his luck and increase his bets. Both are stupid. Anyone who lives and dies off of a one game or one day is destined to subsidize his "man's" lifestyle.
"When you believe in things that you don't understand, you suffer. Superstition ain't the way, yeh, yeh," Stevie Wonder. Those are words to sing and gamble by. I realize that there are times that it seems like everything is going right for you and there are times when no matter how hard you handicap the games, you just feel like in the final minutes or innings of a game if it's close, you will lose.
I know the feeling. I have gone in some slumps and I will have three games on the dish going down to the wire. I just know I am watching heartbreak in progress. It boggles the mind how when things are not going your way every backdoor cover goes against you. But never, ever let such superstition affect your betting. The same is true when you are in a run where every late break goes your way. Pressing one's luck is every bit as dangerous as panicking.
Never vary your bets based on the feeling that you are snake bitten or in a hot streak. As someone who sells picks for a living I am more than aware how gamblers love betting someone's hot streaks. Finding a quality handicapper is much more important and profitable than worrying about who is hot and who has the big plays.
It is harmless if superstition affects your rooting habits, such as wearing your lucky shirt on an NFL Sunday. Buy never cross the line of it entering either your handicapping or the amount that you bet.
The author, Joe Duffy is from the Dream Team at GodTips, the anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Grogan's Fantasy Football show, Radio Baseball Muse and Finn on Sports. Formally of the famed Cadillac Club 900 number, his plays can be gotten one and one place: OffshoreInsiders.com
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