Sunday, March 09, 2008

3 CBB WISE GUY PLAYS AMONG 9 WINNERS; ACC GAME OF THE YEAR INCLUDED

STEAM: In addition to our ACC Game of the Year we have a very rare moneyline CBB dog. Many have asked why we have not had as many this year. Simply because we can only exploit situations when opportunity presents itself. And it certainly has today.

One of our Golden Rules of Handicapping is that it oddsmakers and the general public overplay road stats in neutral games. In reality, neutral games are no more a road game than a home contest. Such overplay happens big time in the SunBelt Conference. The big story is it's our ACC Game of the Year. You get all of today's Joe Duffy's GodsTips  $17 at OffshoreInsiders.com.    

NBA

CHICAGO +9 Detroit

The Pistons are a dichotomous spread team.  We discount 98 percent of trends, but this has proven to be the exception to the rule. Explained in our articles around the Net, basically if a team has a great SU record but horrid ATS record or visa versa, you ride for that to continue as it is the sign of which teams are most under or overvalued.  

They are 45-17 straight up but just 11-18 their last 29 against the spread including three straight losses. On the other hand, the Bulls have stabilized covering 11-of-16 despite being 12 games below .500 straight up. They are 7-4 their last 11 straight up on the road despite an 11-22 straight up road mark

Amongst our permanent clients at OffshoreInsiders.com, the single most common question we get revolves around the position of "That system you been using is great, but doesn't it seem like the parameters should point to the opposite pick?"  So often our systems would be the converse to "conventional logic".  In gambling, acknowledging that "conventional logic" is almost always an oxymoron will put one on the right path to winning. Thus going against the grain is more times than not a stupendous line of attack.

As a for instance, many of our systems involve bad offenses going over, good and hot teams being go against and bad and cold teams being ATS goldmines. There are two huge rationales why this is the case.

The first answer is in the "should it not be the opposite?" line of non-thinking. Lines are made very much to adjust to public perception. Handicapping can be loosely defined as the art of finding the undervalued and overvalued teams.  The teams at the top of the standings, even if they are a Cinderella team won't fly under the radar too long.  The public fears betting bottom feeders.  As we discussed in our article "It is Good to Pick Bad" we synthesize the science of handicapping public perception.

Somewhat related though is the importance of what we call analyzing whether a team will reach their "threshold" or not.  Nothing affects the pre-adjusted line (meaning before injuries, public perception and other considerations) than the two teams' performances to date.

If someone could look into the proverbial crystal ball and tell you that both teams in an NBA game will shoot 10 percent above their season average, would you bet the over or the under?   Chances are that you would happily invest in the over.  Of course I know we preach a preponderance of evidence in handicapping, but I am trying to simplify the illustration.

Comparably in another game you had the two worst shooting teams in the NBA playing each other. Such hypothetical would put each of their field goal percentages at approximately 41 percent.  Each team would need to hit just more than half their shots to exceed the aforestated threshold by 10 percentage points.  However if it involved the two top shooting teams, that would put each team around the 48 percent mark meaning each team would have to shoot 58 percent to reach the exact same threshold.  So in that comparison 58 percent shooting by both teams in one game is the equivalent of 51 percent in the other game.

How appropriate it's called handicapping, because a team's performance to date much like a "handicap" in your neighborhood beer bowling league is what the pointspread is based on.

I know a big time square player whom I will call Sal.  Sal likes picking college hoop totals and one of his built in chestnuts is regurgitating, "I love the over in this game because both teams love to shoot the three point shot." 

"What's the total Sal?" cohort Leo Shafto and I time and time again ask the dunderhead.  Sal stammers, "It doesn't matter, both teams will shoot a lot of threes." Sal the Simpleton is oblivious to the high total, unfazed once he sees it and totally unwitting to the fact that to go over both teams will not only likely have to shoot a bunch of three-point shots, but exceed the high zenith and make an inordinate number to win his bet.  This is especially the case to win based on the reasons Sal gave.

Systems that "make sense" to the uneducated eye are the ones that raise a red flag to the learned. Knowing "conventional logic" is an even bigger oxymoron in handicapping because oddsmakers are aware of public perception and knowing it's easier to exceed a low threshold than a high threshold is indispensable wisdom.

As always system plays are only part of handicapping.  We don't consider a system to be statistically significant unless it has a Z-score of 4.0 or higher (statisticians consider 2.0 to be statistically significant.  Or systems must have an ROI of 80 or above.  But it is almost as important to be aware why systems work. 

Get tickets to the big game, concert, or major event even if it's sold out. Plan a Vegas getaway, listen to the games on satellite radio, order appetizers for the big party, and more at the online store

 

The staff of OffshoreInsiders.com takes a look at the Monday night conference championships.

Elon-Davidson

It's the Southern Conference title on the line. The Wildcats have won the last two championship games and have the longest winning streak in the nation at 21 games. Furthermore, they have won 35 straight conference games by a combined 17.8 points per game.

Elon is playing their best basketball of the year at the right time. In addition to already upsetting the No. 2  seed Chattanooga, they crushed Charleston by 14 and Furman by 15. It's their longest winning streak of the year.

Elon is the lowest seed to make it to the conference finals since 1988. As a result, they are playing their fourth game in four days of the tournament. Davidson because of a bye is playing just their third game.

William & Mary-George Mason

Bill and Mary knocked off the top seed VCU on a last-second basket last night. They met just once this season with the Patriots winning by six. Pressure or motivation, you handicap it? William & Mary must win to make the Big Dance for the first time in their history.

Rider-Siena

It's tough to be more evenly matched than these two teams. The teams split the regular season conference title and split two meetings with each winning on the road. The Broncos played without their starting backcourt yesterday and Ryan Thompson and Justin Robinson were both out. Thompson is second team all-conference. Because he has a concussion suffered two days ago, it is unlikely he will play tonight.

Will Siena have anything left in the tank after erasing a 17-point second half deficit yesterday?

Middle Tennessee State-South Alabama

According to Cy McCormick head of the online betting syndicate MasterLockLine.com, "While USA is known for having the best backcourt in the Sun Belt, MTSU cannot match up against South Alabama's frontcourt," Cy said, referring to 6-8 Ronald Douglas and 6-7 DeAndre Coleman.

South Alabama is the tournament host.

Gonzaga-San Diego

Remember that this game is on San Diego's homecourt. The Zags are a stunning 32-12 all-time straight up in the conference tournament. Gonzaga has won eight of the last nine conference titles, but their only loss was to San Diego.  As far as motivation, there is no doubt that the Zags are in the NCAA Tournament win or lose.

Get the spread winners in these games at OffshoreInsiders.com